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A recent survey by Deutsche Bank indicates a rising concern over a potential U.S. recession, with the probability nearing 50%. Despite low unemployment and economic growth, fears surrounding tariffs could dampen consumer and business spending. Economists warn of a possible stagflation scenario, where growth slows while inflation remains high, echoing conditions not seen since the 1980s.
Deutsche Bank has assessed that there is a 50% chance the U.S. economy could enter a recession this year, based on a survey of 400 respondents. Despite low unemployment and ongoing growth, deteriorating consumer and business sentiment may lead to reduced spending. The Federal Reserve has also expressed concerns, lowering its growth forecast to 1.7% while raising inflation expectations, raising fears of stagflation, a scenario not seen since the early 1980s.
Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, Michael Wilson, predicts that US markets will not reach record highs in the first half of 2025, citing a volatile environment and uncertainty around corporate growth. He anticipates any near-term rallies will be temporary and driven by low-quality companies, while recommending a defensive investment strategy focused on firms with strong earnings prospects. Wilson suggests that a return to record levels is more likely in the latter part of 2025 as investor focus shifts to 2026.
US indices extended their winning streak, with Wall Street gaining 497 points or 1.20% over the week, driven by optimism from Fed President Goolsbee on economic resilience and inflation progress. Key economic data, including the core PCE price index, is anticipated, with markets pricing in potential Fed rate cuts. The recent rally is viewed as a short-covering bounce, lacking strong reasons for a sustainable upward trend.
The Federal Reserve is poised to ease monetary policy to bolster economic growth, despite rising inflation concerns linked to tariffs. While interest rates remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, analysts at Morgan Stanley anticipate a 25-basis point cut in June, emphasizing the Fed's focus on downside risks to economic activity over inflation. However, a cautious approach may be necessary, as persistent inflation could complicate future rate cuts.
US stock markets showed mixed results as tariff concerns eased, while the Australia 200 index rebounded after four weeks of losses, supported by labor data suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the RBA in May. Key economic indicators included unchanged Fed rates, softer retail sales, and a surprising surge in US housing starts. In the UK, inflation rose to 3.0%, prompting the BoE to maintain rates, while Japan's BoJ held rates steady amid global uncertainties.
Goldman Sachs notes a "cautious tone" from the Federal Reserve, which is currently in a "wait-and-see mode" regarding the U.S. growth outlook and trade policies. Recent FOMC projections suggest a "stagflationary" scenario, with growth and inflation forecasts moving in opposite directions, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown.
Rabobank's Jane Foley indicates that the US dollar is under pressure, with potential for short-term pullbacks against currencies like the euro, yen, and pound. Recent market movements suggest a shift away from US risky assets due to growth concerns, while the Federal Reserve faces challenges balancing inflation expectations with interest rate decisions.
Wells Fargo announced the termination of a 2021 consent order by the OCC, marking the eleventh such closure since 2019. CEO Charlie Scharf expressed satisfaction with the decision, viewing it as validation of the bank's progress in addressing regulatory issues, including improper mortgage fees and auto loan insurance practices. The bank has now closed five consent orders since early 2025 and remains committed to resolving outstanding regulatory matters.
Spot silver has surged to around $34.10 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a 14% year-to-date increase, driven by geopolitical tensions, industrial demand, and a strong correlation with gold's record highs. Support levels at $32.50 and $31.20 may offer buying opportunities, while a break above $35.40 could target the $38-40 range by mid-2025. Investors are increasingly attracted to silver as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, bolstered by its dual role as a precious and industrial metal.
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